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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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